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A tariff change is a pricing change. Sellers who treat duty as an accounting detail find out the hard way when a rate moves and the margin they modelled in January stops existing in March. Classification, country of origin, valuation method and Incoterm all feed the number, and every one of them is a lever you can pull legally if you know it is there. This tag tracks rate announcements, exclusions and their expiry, origin rules, and the enforcement patterns that decide whether a ruling on paper becomes a bill in practice. We care about the operator consequence: what it does to your landed cost per unit, whether it changes your DDP quote, and how much notice you actually get. Duty is the most predictable cost in your chain, right up until it is not.
S&P Global projects China EV sales will shrink through 2028, forcing manufacturers to dump excess production into global markets.
China recorded a $133.5 billion trade surplus in September 2026, putting the full-year figure on track to beat 2025's record $1.19 trillion.
Los Angeles handled 1.42 million TEUs in September 2026, its best month ever, with imports up 19% year on year, but its chief says November and December are hard to forecast.
China and the EU agreed on 9 October 2026 to cut Chinese hybrid car exports to the bloc by more than half over four years.
ImportGenius found a $100 billion difference between China’s reported exports to the US and US recorded imports in 2025, suggesting transshipment or value manipulation.
China agreed to import at least 10 million tonnes of US coal in each of 2027 and 2028, following a similar commitment on soybeans.
Washington and Beijing extended their trade truce past 10 November, and Asia-US West Coast spot rates reached $8,400 per FEU, a new high for 2026.
The US-China Board of Trade recommended reduced tariffs on $30bn of goods each way, covering fireworks and Christmas ornaments but excluding most consumer categories.
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Beijing is investigating brake failures in intelligent vehicles, which may trigger wider quality audits for EV exporters. Hong Kong is expanding air cargo capacity to 2 million tonnes to secure its hub status.
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China to North Europe air rates fell 7% last week while transpacific air rose 3%, so your lane choice now decides your margin. The EU’s abolished €150 customs exemption is showing up in the data, with China and Hong Kong imports at Frankfurt down 1.8% and 7.4% in September. China’s September trade surplus hit $133.5 billion, which keeps tariff pressure from Brussels and Washington running hot into 2027 contract season.
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The split is now official: Evergreen says transpacific rates will stay supported by US import demand into the new year while Asia-Europe stays weak, and the Port of LA’s record 1.42 million TEU September backs that up. If you ship to the US, expect firm rates and book early. If you ship to Europe, you have negotiating room, but typhoon knock-on delays are still degrading schedule reliability on both trades.
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China has agreed to cut hybrid car exports to the EU by more than half over four years, the first time Beijing has moderated exports before a trade fight. Tanker hire now costs more than a SpaceX launch, which will feed into fuel surcharges on every lane. Asia-Europe 2027 contract talks have started with shippers holding the stronger hand.
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A $100 billion gap between what China reports shipping to the US and what US Customs records receiving points to transshipment, mis-invoicing or both. The Arctic route carried 14,000 TEU this summer with half the transit time of Suez, dominated by high-value cargo. COSCO faces a potential $16.7 million penalty for ignoring an FMC order for 223 days.
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The US-China trade truce now runs past 10 November and trans-Pacific spot rates hit a 2026 high of $8,400 per FEU to the West Coast, so book your Q4 space before Golden Week ends rather than after. The Hormuz closure is approaching its eighth month and looks set to permanently strip transhipment traffic from Jebel Ali and Khalifa. In the air, hi-tech freight at 3m tonnes has overtaken Chinese ecommerce as the main growth engine, which means more competition for the capacity you rely on.
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Asia-Europe spot rates fell 4% last week to $3,485 per 40-foot container on Shanghai-Rotterdam, and carriers responded by announcing October rate hikes starting 19 October. Transpacific rates moved the opposite direction, climbing 5% as capacity tightens. The US-China tariff relief list covers $30bn of goods each way but excludes most of what ecommerce sellers move.
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China and the US announced tariff cuts on $30bn of goods each, covering 1,696 product lines, but the deal lands too late to change weakening transpac rates and does not touch the port fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated vessels, which restart 10 November unless USTR acts. Soybeans remain subject to an additional 10% tariff in China, and the whole deal still requires domestic legal procedures before it takes effect.
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The Trump administration extended its suspension of port fees on Chinese-built vessels until 10 January 2027, giving you two months of breathing room before shipping costs rise again. Transpacific spot rates hit $11,445 per FEU to the US east coast this week and analysts expect another uptick in early October before Golden Week capacity comes back.
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Chinese ports handled a record 7.3 million TEU in the week ending 20 September, 9% above last year and accelerating from 6% earlier this month. The surge preceded the Trump-Xi summit and appears driven by exporters rushing goods ahead of possible tariff increases. If you have Q4 inventory in a factory right now, you are not alone and the freight schedule reflects that.
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A defence cargo control failure shows how easily chain of custody breaks in mixed commercial networks. Transpac container rates are set to hold through the off-season because Panama Canal cuts and port congestion still choke effective capacity. China’s LPG buyers are back to pre-trade-war volumes by splitting cargoes to defer duty, a tactic worth watching if Section 301 rates climb again.
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Transpacific spot rates rose another 5% to 7% last week and now sit 324% above February levels, closing in on the peaks last seen during Covid disruption. Carriers are adding capacity to chase the margin, Golden Week blanks are lighter than usual, and the divergence with Europe is now in its seventh week.
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CMA CGM removed Hong Kong from its CIMEX1 service this week, forcing shippers to reroute through Shenzhen or Nansha. The US and China are discussing tariff cuts on $30 billion of goods ahead of Xi Jinping’s Washington visit on 24 September, which could signal wider trade relief if it lands.
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Typhoon Saudel has put rolled cargo and skipped port calls back into the China trades, and yard density in north and east Asia is tightening behind it. Cosco has committed about $3bn to 18 new container ships, which does nothing for your Q4 but plenty for 2028 rates. Brussels is briefing that the four-track talks with Beijing could move by the end of the year.
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