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Peak season is the most predictable crisis in the calendar and sellers still get caught by it. Rates rise, capacity tightens, cut-off dates arrive earlier than anyone plans for, and Chinese New Year shuts the factories at the exact moment you realise you under-ordered. The pattern repeats annually, which means the whole thing is plannable. This tag covers the peak cycle as it develops: rate movement into Q4, carrier cut-offs, warehouse capacity, CNY production and shipping deadlines, and the post-holiday restart. We publish deadlines early and repeat them, because the cost of missing a cut-off is not the freight premium. It is the six weeks of stock-out that follow. If you are ordering for a season, work backwards from the dates in here rather than forwards from today.
Ships now wait 10 days to berth at Shanghai and Ningbo, with 3.92 million TEU stuck globally after Typhoon Saudel hit already congested ports.
A full return to Suez routing would reduce global head-haul container demand 8.7% year-on-year in H1 2027, despite cargo volumes still growing.
Typhoon Saudel has triggered fresh transshipment, rolled cargo and skipped port calls in China, with yard density in north and east Asia tightening behind it.
Cosco Shipping has ordered 18 new container ships at a reported $3bn, adding to an orderbook that is already at record levels.
3 stories
Ships wait 10 days to berth at Shanghai and Ningbo after Typhoon Saudel added to weeks of congestion, holding up 3.92 million TEU globally. Carriers are shifting 19% of Asia-Europe capacity back through Suez, and if the full fleet follows, global container demand could contract 8.7% in the first half of 2027 even as underlying cargo volumes grow.
3 stories
Typhoon Saudel has put rolled cargo and skipped port calls back into the China trades, and yard density in north and east Asia is tightening behind it. Cosco has committed about $3bn to 18 new container ships, which does nothing for your Q4 but plenty for 2028 rates. Brussels is briefing that the four-track talks with Beijing could move by the end of the year.
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