China Logistics Briefing: Cosco, Air Cargo, Crude
The bottom line
Cosco is buying its way into the ecommerce supply chain with intermodal services, so ask for a port-to-door quote and make your forwarder match it. Transpacific air freighters are full and the rate is not softening. China has 31 million barrels left of its crude buffer, which puts your fuel surcharge line at risk in Q1.
Cosco targets intermodal and ecommerce trade to lift earnings
The short version
Cosco posted strong Q3 revenue on the trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe and intra-Asia trades and now says it will push into intermodal services and ecommerce trade.
What happened
Cosco reported strong third-quarter revenue gains on the trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe and intra-Asia trades, helped by higher freight rates. The carrier competes on those lanes with the same lines that many China-based sellers already book through forwarders.
Cosco said it is targeting intermodal services and ecommerce trade to boost earnings further. The available summary gives no figures for either operation, no lane detail and no start date, so treat the announcement as a direction of travel rather than a product you can book today.
Source: JOC / Journal of Commerce
Why it matters to you
You book ocean freight through a forwarder and think your job ends at the port. Cosco moving into intermodal means the carrier wants the rail leg, the truck leg and the handoff to your FBA or 3PL warehouse. When a carrier owns more of that chain, your forwarder’s margin gets squeezed and your routing options change.
Ecommerce trade is the tell. Cosco is not chasing full container loads of furniture. It is chasing the parcel and LCL volumes that come from sellers like you. Expect bundled port-to-door products aimed at ecommerce importers, and expect your forwarder to start offering Cosco intermodal as a line item rather than a favour.
The hot take
Carriers have watched forwarders eat the ecommerce margin for a decade and they want it back. Cosco will not win this on service. It will win on price for sellers who do not care which logo is on the container. If you move volume, get the intermodal quote and make your forwarder match it.
What to do about it
- Ask your forwarder for a Cosco intermodal port-to-door quote on your main lane and compare it to your current drayage and rail costs
- Pull your Q1 2027 volume forecast and check whether any lane is heavy enough to justify a direct carrier contract
Air cargo out of Asia is full and the mood in Miami is bullish
The short version
Airlines turned up in force at TIACA’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami, with anyone running a transpacific freighter in particularly good spirits.
What happened
The TIACA Air Cargo Forum ran in Miami this week. The Loadstar reported that airlines turned up in force, people wanted to do business, and anyone with a freighter on the transpacific had particular reason to enjoy themselves.
The report noted full planes and a buoyant mood, and hinted there may be less enjoyment ahead without giving detail in the available summary.
Source: The Loadstar
Why it matters to you
You use air freight when you have run out of stock, when a launch cannot slip, or when a customer will not wait. Full planes on the transpacific mean your air quotes for the next few weeks are not coming down. If you were planning to bridge a Q4 stock gap with air, budget for the rate you see now.
This hits small sellers hardest. If you ship 50kg to 500kg at a time, you take the spot rate and whatever capacity is left after contract volumes are loaded. A bullish airline mood is a polite way of saying the cheap space is already gone.
The hot take
Air cargo conferences are always bullish and the mood is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. But full planes in late October with peak season supposedly over is not nothing. I would book air now for anything that has to land before mid-December and stop pretending the rate will soften.
What to do about it
- Lock air allocations for any shipment that must land before mid-December
- Split urgent air and routine sea shipments now rather than paying air rates on goods that can wait
Newbuildings go to Asia-Latin America as volumes boom on that lane
The short version
New container ship deliveries in the past week went mainly to Far East to Latin America services, with ONE Symphony among the vessels deployed.
What happened
Newbuilding deliveries in the past week were deployed primarily to services between the Far East and Latin America, according to Alphaliner.
Imabari Shipbuilding completed the 13,932 teu ONE Symphony, which will run on ONE’s Asia-WCSA AX3 service, operated jointly with MSC and Hapag-Lloyd. It is the 14th in a series of at least 15 vessels being built at Imabari Group yards.
Source: The Loadstar
Why it matters to you
If you sell into Latin America, this is your lane getting capacity. More tonnage on the Far East to West Coast South America run means more sailing options and, eventually, softer rates as new ships compete with incumbents. That is good news for anyone shipping to Brazil, Chile or Peru.
If you ship to the US or Europe, the read is different. Carriers deploy newbuildings where they see growth. Capacity going to Latin America is capacity not going to the transpacific or Asia-Europe. That is a small tightening on your lane, so book earlier than you did in Q3.
The hot take
Carriers follow volume and volume is following Latin America. That is a real signal about where Chinese export growth is going next. For everyone else, the message is that new ships are not coming to your lane this quarter, so stop expecting rates to fall just because the orderbook is full.
What to do about it
- If you sell into Latin America, get fresh quotes now while new capacity is still being absorbed
- If you ship to the US or Europe, add a week to your booking lead time for Q4
China’s crude stockpile is nearly gone and the refill will be slow
The short version
China drew on crude stocks for the fourth time in five months in September, leaving only 31 million of the 121.5 million barrels built by April.
What happened
China’s customs crude imports were 9.03 mbpd in September, broadly flat on August, while refinery runs climbed to 13.99 mbpd, the highest since March. China drew on its stocks for the fourth time in five months, a net 0.60 mbpd after crude exports.
Of the 121.5 million barrels built by April, only 31 million remain. At the May to September pace of 0.59 mbpd, that would be gone by late November. Arrivals picked up in October, but those cargoes were bought in the summer, and with Brent around $100 since early September, the refill is likely to slow.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News
Why it matters to you
You do not buy crude, but you buy everything crude moves. Bunker fuel is a direct input into your ocean freight rate, and it sits under every fuel surcharge your forwarder quotes you. China running down its buffer while Brent sits near $100 is a setup for a tighter fuel market going into Q1.
Watch your fuel surcharges, not your base rates. Carriers can hold a headline rate flat and recover the difference through a bunker adjustment factor. If Brent stays where it is and Chinese buying has to step up to refill, the BAF line on your invoice is the one that moves.
The hot take
China has been running a crude levee since the Hormuz closure and the water is nearly gone. Everyone is watching the tariff headlines and ignoring the fact that a major importer is about to re-enter the market with a $100 Brent print. Check your BAF clauses before your carrier does.
What to do about it
- Pull your forwarder’s fuel surcharge schedule and check whether your rates include a BAF clause that resets monthly
- Ask your main supplier what crude-linked input costs sit in their Q1 quote
Content hooks
Angles from today’s stories, ready to turn into a post, a video or a note to your list. Take them. That is what they are for.
- 01 Cosco is coming for your forwarder’s intermodal margin and most sellers will not notice until the quote changes
- 02 Full planes out of Asia in late October means the air freight dip you were waiting for is not coming
- 03 New ships are going to Latin America, not your lane, so stop pricing in an orderbook that is not coming to you
- 04 China has 31 million barrels left of its crude buffer and your fuel surcharge is the line that pays for the refill
- 05 The bullish mood at an air cargo conference is a lagging indicator, but full planes in peak season is not
- 06 Carriers follow volume, and volume is following Latin America. That is a market signal, not a shipping story
- 07 Your supplier’s Q1 quote has a crude assumption inside it and nobody has asked what it is
- 08 Everyone watches the base rate and ignores the BAF clause, which is where the carrier recovers the difference
- 09 Intermodal is the quiet part of Cosco’s plan: the carrier wants the whole chain, not just the ocean leg
- 10 If your lane is not getting new capacity this quarter, add a week to your booking lead time and stop assuming you can book late
Questions people are asking
- Is air freight from China getting more expensive in November 2026?
- The signal from the Miami air cargo forum is that transpacific freighters are full and airlines are in a strong negotiating position. Full planes at the end of peak season means rates are unlikely to fall soon. If you need to bridge a stock gap with air, budget at current rates rather than waiting for a dip.
- What does Cosco moving into intermodal mean for my shipping costs?
- Cosco wants to sell the rail and truck legs as well as the ocean leg, particularly for ecommerce volumes. If you ship enough to quote directly, ask for a port-to-door intermodal price and compare it to your forwarder’s drayage and rail costs. Smaller shippers will see it passed through as a line item.
- Should I change my shipping lane because new ships are going to Latin America?
- Only if you sell into Latin America. New capacity on the Far East to West Coast South America trade means more sailing options and softer rates there. If you ship to the US or Europe, new tonnage is going elsewhere, so your lane is not getting looser. Book earlier and expect tighter allocation.
- Why does China’s crude oil stockpile matter to my freight costs?
- Bunker fuel is a direct input into ocean freight, recovered through fuel surcharges on your invoice. China drew on crude stocks for the fourth time in five months in September, leaving only 31 million barrels of the 121.5 million built by April. If China refills at Brent near $100, your surcharge line moves.
The bottom line
The bottom line
Cosco is buying its way into the ecommerce supply chain with intermodal services, so ask for a port-to-door quote and make your forwarder match it. Transpacific air freighters are full and the rate is not softening. China has 31 million barrels left of its crude buffer, which puts your fuel surcharge line at risk in Q1.